Models

Each model shows its inputs, its assumptions and where it breaks. Change the numbers and see what moves.

Match prediction

Set each side's expected goals and see every scoreline's probability, plus win, draw and loss.

The famous fix for Poisson's low-scoring draws, side by side with plain Poisson, and a look at when it fixes nothing.

Two ratings and home advantage give a win expectancy; see how far a win, draw or defeat moves each side.

Set the minute, the lead and each side's expected goals, and see how often that lead ends in a win, a draw or a defeat.

Enter each side's shots as xG and see who the chances favoured, and the points each side deserved.

Set each side's penalty conversion rate and see how often each wins the shootout, sudden death included.

A striker who never gets better or worse still has droughts and hot streaks. See how long, and how often, by chance alone.

A new signing scores four penalties from four. Combine what you believed before with his record and see how good he is likely to be.

Give a match your home, draw and away chances, pick the result, and see your log loss, Brier score and RPS against two benchmark forecasters.

Next up: a player similarity explorer and a map of players by style, once there's player data we can stand behind.